The last elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo were held on 23 December 2018, almost a year late and in a tense atmosphere after former president Joseph Kabila tried to amend the constitution to run for a third term.

Kabila finally gave up his plans and the opposition Félix Tshisekedi won in a vote marked by war, insecurity, and also religion. Neither the other opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, nor the Bishops’ Conference recognised his victory. Five years later, the country is once again going to the polls and the pressure does not seem to be lessening.

Tshisekedi is running for re-election against a coalition of opponents led by Moïse Katumbi who, however, has not managed to bring together all the opposition. Apart from Katumbi, the Congolese will also be able to choose between Fayulu, a regular in recent elections in the country, and the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2018, the doctor Denis Mukwege, who was part of the student evangelical movement during his time at university.

A special election

The elections of this Wednesday, 20 December 2023, are practically the first ones without any Kabila present in the official sphere of power. Although Joseph Kabila no longer stood in the last ballot, he was the outgoing president.

“The situation before the election is a bit tense”, Johnny Ngunza, a Congolese Christian, told Protestante Digital. “There is a lot at stake in the presidential election. The other opposition candidates are already accusing those in power of wanting to cheat and set up a fraudulent mechanism to allow the incumbent president to be re-elected. This is the climate of suspicion in which we find ourselves. And the ruling party's campaign guideline is to present the most prominent opposition candidate as a foreigner or a candidate of foreigners”.

Ngunza is of the opinion that the election will be decided between the candidacies of Tshisekedi and Katumbi.

The dancing of names on the lists that usually dominates elections in the DRC “has diminished”, explains Aristide Lathoum, secretary general of the country’s IFES Christian student movement. However, he also says that Tshisekedi “has managed to build a parliamentary majority that he did not have at the beginning of his mandate”. “Many politicians have switched to the political platform Union for the Nation, which includes former political heavyweights, including former rebel leaders, new leaders of the main political parties and dissidents of Joseph Kabila”, he adds.

No guarantee of peace

For many Congolese, the recent polls have been accompanied by an escalation of violence. “Christians are worried about the possibility of violence and instability”, admits the evangelical Christian contacted by this magazine.

“The upcoming elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to mark a turning point in the country’s history” and could be “an opportunity for the country to move away from the corruption, violence, and poverty that have been plaguing it for so long”.

Many Christians are “hopeful that the elections will bring about a more just and equitable society. On the other hand, they are concerned about the possibility of violence and instability. Due to the country's long history of conflict, it is possible that the elections could reinvigorate tensions between various ethnic groups and political factions. The possibility of voter fraud and intimidation is also a concern for Christians. They fear that the elections won’t be impartial and that the outcomes won’t align with the people’s desires”.

Ngunza qualifies that “Christians are divided” and that “each one supports his or her candidate”, reflecting the general polarisation that characterises the elections. The regional issue is also an indispensable element in understanding the particularity of the DRC elections. “In the villages I visited in the Beni region, the people, most of whom declare themselves Christians, want change. They want security and an improvement in their living conditions”, he says.

For Lathoum, “tribalism is a phenomenon that is on the rise, and more so as the elections approach”. “For example, migrants from Kasai, Tshisekedi’s home region, who move to Katanga, the home province of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi, considered Felix’s greatest rival, are being persecuted”, he says. “Insecurity persists in the east of the country, especially with the resurgence of the Rwandan-backed M23 and the continued killings in Beni by the alleged ADF/NALU, an Islamic group from Uganda. Faced with the Congolese army's inability to defeat the nation's enemies and the ineffectiveness of the UN mission, which has been present in DR Congo for more than 20 years, Tshisekedi has sought other ways to resolve the security problem”, he adds.

In addition, on a strictly political level, there are also issues that for the head of IFES in DR Congo “do not bode well for the credibility of the results, transparency and a peaceful climate at the end of these elections”. Some are boycotting the election, and others who say the census needs to be updated and subjected to external control.

The conflict in the east

Although the Roman Catholic Pope Francis visited the country in February this year and called for peace with political leaders, the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo is one of the longest-running conflicts at the moment, and one of the most complex to explain. Armed groups whose motivation is primarily to control land for natural resources, organisations with religious ideologies and rebels opposed to the executive in Kinshasa are fighting each other and the national army, especially in the northeast of the country. “When Felix came to power, there was some hope, although his election was contested. Five years later, many of the promises have not been fulfilled. The current government has shown its limitations in solving the famous security problem”, explains Lathoum.

Indeed, the head of the United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), Bintou Keita, has warned of the growing level of insecurity in the country before the UN Security Council. In fact, MONUSCO is the largest mission currently active in the UN, with more than 17,700 personnel, behind only the operations in the Central African Republic and South Sudan.

An insecurity that directly affects participation in the elections, as recalled by the evangelical who prefers to remain anonymous consulted in this report, who says “situation is particularly volatile in the territories of Masisi and Rutshuru, in the province of North Kivu, where the M23 rebels have perpetrated massacres of civilians”. “As a result of this precarious security situation, the populations of these territories have not been registered and will therefore not be taking part in the forthcoming elections”.

Lathoum also believes that the country needs “an opposition coalition to have any hope of defeating Tshisekedi”. “But the results have to be in line with the popular vote”, he says. As for the media figure of Mukwege, Lathoum says he is “very respected, but he lacks a political base in the country”, so he does not expect any big surprises.

A difficult economic situation

The persistently precarious economic situation in the DRC is another factor to take into account when following the country’s elections. The African Development Bank estimates that poverty affects 72% per cent of Congolese households in rural regions and 59% of households in urban settings.

“Economic difficulties include poverty, unemployment, and corruption. Many Congolese people are living in poverty due to the unequal distribution of natural resources in the country”, laments the Christian consulted for this report who preferred to remain anonymous. “Added to this is the problem of the depreciation of the Congolese franc against the US dollar, a situation that has led to a rise in the price of basic necessities, including fuel, making life too expensive for the Congolese population”.

Lathoum also believes that voters go to the polls with the economic and social factor very much on their minds. “The country is facing a number of challenges, such as the high cost of living, the loss of value of the local currency against foreign currencies, rising prices and the deterioration of the global balance of payments”, he says.

Congolese Christians and the elections

For a country with a Christian majority, however, the elections are no more bearable than elsewhere. In fact, the pressure of Islamism has also been felt in the country, especially in the northern and eastern regions, where in January this year an attack on an evangelical church killed at least 17 people.

“The Catholic Church and the Evangelical Church continue to call on the electoral commission to ensure conditions for credible elections. In particular, they are calling for a check on the electoral roll, which contains numerous irregularities”, explains Aristide Lathoum, secretary general of the Biblical University Groups of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“The other Christians are either for or against the current government, depending on their position or their interpretation of the country's situation”, he points out. “It has to be said that the majority of the Congolese population is uneducated, which makes them easy to manipulate by dishonest politicians. As the elections approach, it is not unusual to see Christians in our churches insisting on the importance of praying for the elections, because everyone knows that it is a crucial moment to decide the future of the country, but also a moment of socio-political turbulence”, he adds.

Protestante Digital has also contacted another Congolese evangelical who wished to remain anonymous, who considers that “the upcoming elections are a critical moment for the DRCongo”. “They are capable of either bringing about a more just and equitable society or causing chaos and violence in the country. Christians are playing a key role in shaping the outcome of these elections. Through their prayers and actions, they are contributing to the creation of a future that is more peaceful and just for the country”.