ADVERTISING
 
Sunday, June 24   Sign in or Register
 
Evangelical Focus
 
Flecha
 
ADVERTISING
 
 
FOLLOW US ON
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Google +
  • Instagram
  • Soundcloud
 

Newsletter
Newsletter, sign up to receive all our News by email.
 
 

POLL
Migration
Do Christians in your country have a Bible-based understanding of how migrants should be treated?




SEE MORE POLLS
 

 
TOP 10 MOST VIEWED



Study
 

Muslim population of Europe is projected to increase by at least 10 million in 2050

“Non-Muslim European women are projected to have a total fertility rate of 1.6 children, on average, compared with 2.6 children per Muslim woman in the region”, says a Pew Research study.

SOURCES Pew Research AUTHOR Evangelical Focus 05 DECEMBER 2017 18:16 h GMT+1
Muslim men. / Igor Ovsyannykov. Unsplash.

According to a study published this November by Pew Research, the Muslim population in Europe is growing steadily.



This is mainly because, in recent years, the continent has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries.



Pew Research Center has modeled three scenarios that vary depending on future levels of migration.



The baseline for all three scenarios is the Muslim population in the 28 European Union countries plus Norway and Switzerland, which, as of mid-2016, was estimated at 25.8 million (4.9% of the overall population), up from 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010.



Amount of growth in Europe's Muslim population depends on future migration



“ZERO MIGRATION SCENARIO”



The study describes a “zero migration” scenario, where “all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop”.



Even in that scenario, “the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050, which means that it is projected to increase by 10 million.



“This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern”.



France would experience notable change even in this zero migration scenario, with the relatively young French Muslim population rising from 5.7 million (8.8% of the population) to 8.6 million (12.7%).



 



“MEDIUM MIGRATION SCENARIO”



A second, “medium” migration scenario “assumed that all refugee flows would stop as of mid-2016, but that recent levels of regular migration to Europe (migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum) will continue”.



Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050, around 58 million Muslims.



The UK, which has received more regular Muslim migrants in recent years than any other European country, would have the continent’s largest Muslim population by 2050 under this scenario.



 



“HIGH MIGRATION SCENARIO”



The “high migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition”: mostly Muslims, along with the typical annual flow of regular migrants.



In this scenario, “Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 (75 million), nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe”.



Under the high migration scenario, Germany would have by far the biggest Muslim population in Europe in 2050 , with 17.5 million, or about one-in-five Germans, because Germany has accepted the greatest number of Muslim refugees in recent years.



 



“THE MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO IS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM AND HIGH”



With these scenarios, Pew “does not aim to predict what will happen in the future, but rather a set of projections about what could happen under different circumstances”.



According to the study, “the most realistic endpoint for Europe may be somewhere between the medium and high migration scenarios, meaning Muslims could make up between 11.2% and 14% of Europe’s population in 2050”.



In three migration scenarios, population decline for Europe's non-Muslims, population growth for Muslims



ASSYLUM SEEKERS AND REFUGEES



The impact of these scenarios is uneven across different European countries; due in large part to government policies, some countries are much more affected by migration than others.



That is why Pew believes that “one source of uncertainty is the status of asylum seekers who are not granted refugee status”.



Based on recent rates of approval of asylum applications, Pew Research Center “estimates that nearly a million (970,000) additional Muslim asylum seekers who came to Europe in recent years will not have their applications for asylum accepted”.



However, “of the roughly 1.6 million people who received refugee status in Europe between mid-2010 and mid-2016 (or are expected to have their applications approved in the future), more than three-quarters (78%, or 1.3 million) were estimated to be Muslims”.



 



HIGHER FERTILITY RATES AMONG MUSLIM WOMEN



Migration aside, “fertility rates are among the other dynamics driving Europe’s growing Muslim population”, the study explains.



Europe’s Muslims have more children than members of other religious groups (or people with no religion) in the region”.



Although “not all children born to Muslim women will ultimately identify as Muslims, children are generally more likely to adopt their parents’ religious identity than any other”, Pew points out.



Taken as a whole, “non-Muslim European women are projected to have a total fertility rate of 1.6 children, on average, during the 2015-2020 period, compared with 2.6 children per Muslim woman in the region”.



“This difference of one child per woman is particularly significant given that fertility among European Muslims exceeds replacement level ( the rate of births needed to sustain the size of a population) while non-Muslims are not having enough children to keep their population steady”, the study concludes.


 

 


0
COMMENTS

    If you want to comment, or

 



 
 
YOUR ARE AT: - - Muslim population of Europe is projected to increase by at least 10 million in 2050
 
ADVERTISING
 
 
AUDIOS Audios
 
Ruth Valerio: A lifestyle that cares about creation Ruth Valerio: A lifestyle that cares about creation

Are Christians called to make a difference in environmental care? What has creation care to do with "loving our neighbours"? An interview with the Global Advocacy and Influencing Director of Tearfund.

 
Kathy Bryan: Online sex trafficking in the USA Kathy Bryan: Online sex trafficking in the USA

“Prostitution is nobody’s dream,  it’s a very traumatic lifestyle”, says Kathy Bryan, director of the Elevate Academy. She mentors former victims.

 
Christians in politics? Christians in politics?

What is the role of Christians serving in politics? An interview with Auke Minnema, the new General Director of the European Christian Political Movement (ECPM).

 
Michael Ramsden: Communicating the Gospel in today’s societies Michael Ramsden: Communicating the Gospel in today’s societies

RZIM International Director Michael Ramsden responds to questions about the secularisation of Europe, the role of Christians in public leadership and the new ‘culture of victimism’.

 
Michael Schluter: Relationships are the key to build Europe Michael Schluter: Relationships are the key to build Europe

The economist summarises the manifesto “Confederal Europe: Strong Nations, Strong Union” and explains why personal relationships should be at the centre of our economy, education and democracy. 

 
Efraim Tendero: Relationship with Roman Catholicism and other current issues Efraim Tendero: Relationship with Roman Catholicism and other current issues

The World Evangelical Alliance Secretary General participated in the Italian Evangelical Alliance assembly (Rome, 8-9 April). In this interview with Evangelical Focus, Bp Tendero talks about the need to listen to local churches and to face challenges like the refugee crisis and climate change. 

 
Greg Pritchard: European Leadership Forum Greg Pritchard: European Leadership Forum

Pritchard explains the vision of ELF, comments on the 2015 event in Poland and reflects on what it means to have an "evangelical identity".

 
PICTURES Pictures
 
Analysing current issues in the light of the Bible Analysing current issues in the light of the Bible

At the 2018 Apologetics Forum in Comarruga (Spain), Michael Ramsden, Pablo Martinez, Ruth Valerio and José de Segovia analysed how society and the Bible approach the issues of personal identity, integrity, sexuality, pop culture, and environmental care.

 
European “Bridges to Inclusion” gathering 2018, in Riga European “Bridges to Inclusion” gathering 2018, in Riga

The network of Christian ministries working for the inclusion of people with disabilities, celebrated its tenth continental meeting in Latvia with the participation of 12 countries.

 

 
Coexistence in the church - a model for society Coexistence in the church - a model for society

“Gospel, identity and coexistence” were the themes of the General Assembly of the Spanish Evangelical Alliance. Two days in Palma de Mallorca to reflect about the role of evangelical churches in society.

 
'Ungi kulimi changana' 'Ungi kulimi changana'

Educator and journalist Jordi Torrents shares images of the Sekeleka social centre in Mozambique. About 50 children live there, many with some kind of disability. All photos were taken with permission.

 
The President in an evangelical church on Christmas Eve The President in an evangelical church on Christmas Eve

For the first time, the President of Portugal attended a worship service in an evangelical church. It was in Sintra, on Christmas Eve.

 
Stamps to commemorate the Reformation Stamps to commemorate the Reformation

Poland, Lithuania, Namibia and Brazil are some of the countries that have issued special stamps on the 500th anniversary of Martin Luther’s 95 theses.

 
VIDEO Video
 
Trailer: “The Peace Between” Trailer: “The Peace Between”

A film about the experience of refugees in Europe. Churches, small groups and individuals are encouraged to use it during Refugee Week: 17-24 June.

 
How can churches better support singles? How can churches better support singles?

Tina Tschage, on some areas in which other Christians can encourage singles.

 
The Church of Scotland debates historic doctrines The Church of Scotland debates historic doctrines

The Kirk has begun official procedures to investigate the status and the role of the Westminster Confession of Faith within its denomination.

 
Be safe on social media Be safe on social media

A video about the way traffickers target teenage girls online, produced by anti-slavery gorup Abolishion.

 
In Mission In Mission

A 360º lyric video about how all followers of Jesus Christ are called to serve God. Duo in Spanish (Alex Sampedro) and Portuguese (Marcos Martins).

 
Heart Heart

A short animation film by Swiss cartoonist Alain Auderset tells the message of the Bible in four minutes.

 
Philip Yancey interview Philip Yancey interview

An 8-minute interview with Philip Yancey on the role of Christians in a secularised society. Recorded in Madrid, September 2016.

 
An interview with Prof. John Lennox An interview with Prof. John Lennox

New atheism, the definition of "faith", Christianity in Europe, the role of the Bible in mission, and the need to listen more. An exclusive interview recorded at "Forum Apologética" (Tarragona, Spain) in May 2016.

 
 
Follow us on Soundcloud
Follow us on YouTube
 
 
WE RECOMMEND
 
PARTNERS
 

 
AEE
EVANGELICAL FOCUS belongs to Areópago Protestante, linked to the Spanish Evangelical Alliance (AEE). AEE is member of the European
Evangelical Alliance and World Evangelical Alliance.
 

Opinions expressed are those of their respective contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of Evangelical Focus.