France will vote on 30 June in the first round of a general election that can dramatically change the course of the country.

In a surprise movement after the French clearly voted against Emmanuel Macron’s positions in the June European election, the President of France dissolved the Assamblée National (the national parliament). His aim: to ask the citizenship to express if their support for the surging nationalistic hard right movements was serious.

The first round, this Sunday, will show how strong the radical Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen (and her candidate to prime minister, Jordan Bardella) really is. On the other extreme of the spectrum, a combination of left-wing populistic movements hope to become the second force in France. This could leave the reformist and liberal positions of Macron in a very weak position.

What is the “most dangerous” option?

“The election takes place over two rounds, so whatever happens in the first round only gives an indication of a tendency of what might happen in the second round, which will be held on 7 July”, David Brown, a pastor and missiologist, told Evangelical Focus.

“During the week between the two rounds, alliances are made and some candidates withdraw in order to build a consensus for victory against what is seen as the most dangerous party. The challenge for the opinion polls is to try to discover what voters consider to be the most dangerous party”.  

Many tired of Macron’s “haughtiness”

What everyone anticipates is a historic shift. Sebastian Fath, a Christian historian and researcher, told this site that “the only clear thing now is France is in crisis”.

In this diverse Southern European country of 68 million people, “there is a hardening of attitudes and a polarisation at work”, thinks David Brown, who clarifies that his views are personal and do not represent any particular organisation.

What many French on all sides agree on is that they no longer support the President. “Whole swathes of the population” see Emmanuel Macron as too “intellectual”, as well as “haughty and conceited - his nickname is Jupiter”, says David Brown.

“This perception partly comes from his refusal to pander to public opinion in his legislation (such as the raising of the retirement age)”. Macron introduced “a new thing in French politics”, says Brown, since in France historically “the street (i.e. demonstrations) used to be sufficient to get governments to change their mind”.

Evangelicals lose confidence in Macron

In this uncertain context, “evangelical churches don’t lose hope, and keep growing”, Sebastien Fath tells Evangelical Focus.

The historian just wrote a paper in the French weekly Reforme to explain why Macron lost the Protestant vote. “Up to 2022, Protestants, including evangelical Christians (who are the majority of Protestants in France) used to over-vote for Macron. These days are over. The last Macron years have been very disappointing for Protestants (evangelicals included)”, says Fath.

What has changed? Several decisions that clash with the values of evangelicals. “The last laws on separatism, immigration, and the project on euthanasia have driven more and more evangelicals away from Macron”.

Also the move to make abortion a constitutional right was clearly opposed by evangelical churches.

Evangelicals supporting French Christian nationalism?

A challenging question that is in the air is if French Protestants, which have historically opposed nationalism and far-right movements, would now be open to support Marine Le Pen’s ideas.

“The nationalism factor within French evangelical circles is a point of particular attention”, says the historian. “French Evangelicals used to be against French-style Christian nationalism, knowing that in the past, each time Roman Catholic style Christianity and nationalism merged, it was at the expense of Protestant minorities”.

But at the recent European elections, “11% of Protestants voted for Marion Marechal, the poster women of xenophobic Christian Nationalism in France”, underlines Fath. “11% is a lot. Why? What part do evangelicals play in this? This all needs to be followed carefully”, says the researcher.

Churches called to welcome people in their differences

David Brown thinks it is “hard to get an accurate picture of how Christians in France will vote”.

“There is a feeling that the Gospel is absent from public discourse, but that evangelicals can set a good example of how to welcome people with their differences, because of the social mix and the multicultural dimension of many of our churches”.

Many of these churches, adds Brown, “encourage their members to get involved, individually and collectively, in all areas of society for the good of the city. French Christians see the need to convey in word and deed the two-fold dimension of the teaching of Jesus: loving God and loving our neighbours”.